2016 bellwether counties

Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . They simply vote on merit. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. That's 14 in a row. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Click here, for more. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. These counties could play an . It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Yes, another Hillsborough! Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). 108,000 people. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. All Rights Reserved. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. What, if anything, did we miss? Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Watauga has gone for. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. In 2020, a single. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. . In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. 8. Demographics (84) The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. There are 391 such counties. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Team up with others in your region, and help out by Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. 9. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. The divisions were everywhere. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Outstanding. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Just how big is it? A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Thank you for supporting our journalism. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. What science tells us about the afterlife. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". 3. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. hide caption. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump They're just facts about the vote. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. 2016 Election (1135) If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? All rights reserved. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. But that's no longer the case. i.e. 2020 Election (1210) These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. (Go to the bottom of the page. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. Outstanding. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Seriously. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections.

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